Around the time in March 2020 that lockdowns were imposed in response to covid, an Iceberg meme was widely shared on social media. The picture conveyed the message that lockdowns were going to have all sorts of negative consequences that were being ignored in the myopic focus on covid deaths.
There was no cost benefit analysis of lockdowns done at the time because governments wanted to introduce lockdowns. Now, 4 years later, we are in a position to perform a retrospective cost benefit analysis by quantifying the positive and negative consequences of the lockdowns.
Taking each ‘below the water line’ consequence of lockdowns in turn…
Unemployment:
The lockdowns of 2020 resulted in the UK’s worst recession in the history of industrial capitalism – a fall in economic output not seen since the Great Frost of 1709.
Speaking in October 2020 Jonathan Athow, the ONS’s deputy national statistician for economic statistics, said there had been a “sharp increase” in those out of work and job hunting since March.
“Overall employment is down about half a million since the pandemic began and there are particular groups who seem to be most affected, young people in particular,” he told the BBC’s Today programme.
“[Of those out of work] about 300,000 are aged 16-24, so about 60% of the fall in employment… that’s really disproportionate.”
Yet there was a quick bounceback in unemployment numbers. As the graph below shows, by September 2022, the unemployment rate was lower than before the lockdowns. We see the lockdown unemployment blip taking unemployment from 3.9% to 5.5% and then falling rapidly. That blip would have been very stressful for everyone who lost their job during that time. The blip was entirely the result of the government’s lockdown policy.
However, it’s not all good news: as of January 2023 the UK still has about 200,000 more people out of work than in December 2019. It seems counter-intuitive that the unemployment can be lower yet the workforce is smaller. That’s because some people have chosen to be economically inactive, perhaps by taking early retirement. These may well be people who would have preferred to continue working but having lost their jobs found it difficult to find another. That’s 200,000 people who are no longer contributing tax revenue.
A 2014 study in Social Science and Medicine by Timothy J. Halliday showed that a 1% rise in the unemployment rate raises the risk of dying by 6% over the following year.
Let’s not forget the impact lockdowns had on small businesses.
SMEs account for 50 percent of the total revenue generated by UK businesses and 44 percent of the labour force. During lockdowns many SME’s were forced to shutter. Large firms, on the other hand were classed as ‘essential businesses’ and were allowed to continue trading. Sounds like the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer.
What was the impact of these policies on SME’s?
As of 1 January 2021, there were 6.5 per cent fewer private companies than in 2020. This was the largest fall in business population since before 2000.
The bulk of these closed companies will have been SME’s.
The Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey (Wave 17) found 17.2% of micro businesses (fewer than 10 workers) were pausing trade or temporarily closed as of late October 2020 compared with 6.1% of firms with 250 or more workers.
Overall, the UK economy, measured by gross domestic product (GDP), shrank by a record 19.8% in the second quarter (April to June) of 2020, following the start of the first lockdown on 23 March.
According to analysis by the Bank of England, the pandemic reduced cash flows for many companies, with smaller companies “more likely than larger companies to operate in sectors that have been most affected by the shock, such as accommodation and food, arts and recreation, and construction”.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research has previously warned that the level of GDP was on track to be almost 4 per cent lower in 2025 than it would have been without the lockdowns. The cumulative loss of economic output, it said, would be worth £727 billion over the five-year period.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) October 2020 retail sales publication reported “online sales reaching higher than usual levels over the course of the pandemic”. Online purchases represented 28.5% of total sales in October compared with 20.1% in February.
Conclusion: The wealthy did very well out of lockdowns as they hoovered up government grants and contracts and quantitative easing monies. Plus, big companies were able to continue trading whilst their smaller rivals were shuttered. The result of lockdowns was the biggest transfer of wealth to the top 1% in human history.
Heart Failure / Death by Disease:
A report in The Financial Times on April 26, 2020 referenced an internal British government estimate that ultimately, without mitigation, up to 150,000 people in the UK could die prematurely from other conditions because of the Covid-induced lockdown that put on hold huge numbers of screenings and operations. Yet the band played on.
From March 2020 hospitals pretty much stopped ‘routine’ services. The Lancet published results of a study into the impact of the first UK lockdown on hospital admissions:
‘Admission rates for all three conditions [1) cancer 2) cardiovascular 3) respiratory] fell by 34.2% in England, 20.9% in Scotland, and 24.7% in Wales.’
However, these percentages from the Lancet sound pretty dry. They don’t tell us the numbers involved. Instead, let’s focus on this story from a breast cancer charity:
‘Between March and September 2020, it is estimated that 986,000 women missed regular breast screenings… This will translate into 8,600 women having undetected breast cancer… Breast cancer diagnosed at a later stage can be harder to treat…’
Lockdowns will have caused hundreds, maybe thousands, of women to die or become seriously ill with breast cancer. That is the impact of lockdowns on just one disease. Now think of all the other diseases where scans and preventative treatments save lives. This gives an insight into the numbers of people who were the lambs sacrificed to the covid God.
The NHS was created to protect us. Now, we were told we had to protect the NHS.
NHS waiting lists are at record levels. Over seven million patients were waiting to start hospital treatment at the end of September 2022. Over 400,000 had been waiting for over a year. This is more than double the pre-pandemic level.
117,000 people on the National Health Service’s (NHS) multi-million-long waiting lists had died by July 2022. How many of these people would still be alive if the NHS had not transformed into the National Covid Service?
According to YouGov and Eurostat data, one in six UK adults were unable to access a pressing medical examination or treatment over the past year – the highest proportion in Europe.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31648-2/fulltext#%20
As far as heart failure is concerned, in June 2012 the British Heart Foundation published data that ‘Nearly 100,000 more deaths involving heart conditions and stroke than usual since pandemic began’. This total equates to 500 additional deaths per week involving cardiovascular disease. Some will say the extra deaths are caused by the record NHS backlogs since the lockdowns. Others will politely suggest the treatment used to innoculate people from covid is responsible. A few will even say that covid is responsible for the extra heart disease without explaining why heart disease deaths have remained high whilst covid rates have collapsed.
And let’s not forget that our immune systems need to be kept fighting fit:
‘Dr Sunetra Gupta explains that society-wide pathogenic avoidance creates an “immunity debt,” a gap in the level of protection that you have developed from previous exposure.
‘Dr. Gupta’s observation is that we evolved with pathogens in a delicate dance in which we share the same ecosphere, both suffering and benefiting from our entanglement with them. Disturbing that balance can wreck the immune system and leave us more vulnerable and sicker than ever before. ‘
Conclusion: The government decided that covid deaths were more important than non-covid deaths. As a result,the number of non-covid deaths caused by cancelled screenings and longer waiting times is already greater than the number of deaths from covid and this differential will continue to grow over the coming years.
Suicides / Mental Health:
Several early warnings were issued also about the mental health costs of lockdown measures with increased loneliness, mental anxiety and emotional distress at job losses, financial stress and forced family separations.
During February 21–March 20, 2021, suspected suicide attempt A&E visits in the US were 50.6% higher among girls aged 12–17 years than during the same period in 2019…
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7024e1.htm
Children and young people are now facing what amounts to a mental health crisis, exacerbated by the pandemic, with around one in six 6-to-16-year-olds now having a probable mental health disorder.
NHS data analysed by the PA news agency show a 39 percent rise in a year in referrals for NHS mental health treatment for under-18s, to 1,169,515 in 2021 to 2022.
https://www.oxfam.org/en/research/inequality-virus
This study showed that the percentage of students who had a score which warranted a classification of clinical depression increased from 30% to 44%, and for anxiety increased from 22% to 27% – those students who showed a co-morbidity across the two rose from 12% to 21%. Smartphone addiction levels rose from 39% to 50%. Correlational analysis showed a significant relationship between Smartphone usage and depression and anxiety.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6945a3.htm
Conclusion: Our governments unleashed a wholly unnecessary campaign of fear in order to convince us that covid was an existential threat. This fear campaign was transmitted to a population isolated by lockdown restrictions. Fear and isolation is not a healthy combination. The heightened levels of anxiety and depression in society that resulted from that campaign will probably never return to pre-lockdown levels.
Addiction:
There were 9,641 alcohol related deaths in the UK in 2021, compared to 7,565 in 2019 – a 27% increase.
In February 2021 the ‘Action on Addiction’ charity says it saw an 86% rise in the number of people seeking help in January 2021 compared with January 2020. The difference is explained by the UK being in lockdown in 2020.
Smartphone addiction levels rose from 39% to 50%. Correlational analysis showed a significant relationship between Smartphone usage and depression and anxiety.
https://richieallen.co.uk/lockdowns-contributed-to-record-number-of-alcohol-related-deaths/
This next article published many more references to the predictions of harm that would be caused, globally, by lockdowns that were ignored by governments.
Conclusion: routine is a positive influence for people. It’s not really a surprise that when people had their routine taken away by lockdowns, they would fill that space with destructive tendencies.
Violence:
In May 2020, Refuge, a charity that runs a domestic abuse helpline, said that over the previous three consecutive weeks it had recorded a 66% increase in calls to its helpline and recorded a 957% increase in web traffic over the previous two weeks.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52755109
This upsurge in violence led the government to pledge an extra £76m to support vulnerable people trapped home during lockdown restrictions.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52516433
In the US, gun violence increased during lockdowns
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-98813-z
Conclusion: it is obvious that restricting people to their homes will lead to an increase in domestic abuse. Then, transmitting a fear campaign will only exacerbate the situation.
Famine / Death of Children:
The Covid-19 crisis has doubled the number of people around the world who are facing crisis levels of hunger.
https://reliefweb.int/report/world/hunger-pandemic-threatens-270-million-people-christmas
Zimbabwe:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/2/16/zimbabweans-worry-as-new-coronavirus-lockdown-looms
South Africa:
Congo:
The World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that the number of people in need of assistance in Congo’s urban areas has doubled, from 150,000 to 300,000.
https://www.wfp.org/stories/hunger-lockdown
UK:
Millions went hungry during first months of UK lockdown, figures show
Government data reveals up to 7.7m adults reduced or missed meals and 3.7 used food banks
India:
https://asia.fes.de/news/stories-of-hunger-indias-lockdown-is-hitting-the-poorest
Vietnam:
The World:
An Oxfam report found that 121 million more people could be “pushed to the brink of starvation this year” as a result of disruption to food production and supplies, diminishing aid as well as mass unemployment.
https://time.com/5864803/oxfam-hunger-covid-19/
The number of people living in famine-like conditions has increased sixfold since the pandemic
Conclusion: Lots of low paid non-essential workers were not allowed to work at a time when economic activity collapsed. This is the recipe for hunger.
Education:
Lockdowns forced 500 million children around the world out of school
From select committee report: ‘One 2020 study found that children locked down at home in the UK spent an average of only 2.5 hours each day doing schoolwork, and one fifth of pupils did no schoolwork at home, or less than one hour a day. School closures have been nothing short of a national disaster for children and young people….it is clear that school closures have had a disastrous impact on children’s academic progress, with disadvantaged children and those living in disadvantage areas the worse hit.’
The rapid digitisation of education further widened learning gaps between wealthy and low-income students in the country:
‘An important side-effect of the coronavirus impact is the exposure of the digital divide that exists in the UK. Social mobility and class differences mean that some of the poorest and most disadvantaged children are likely to be affected by a lack of access to remote learning because of technological issues.’
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5802/cmselect/cmeduc/940/summary.html
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/brown-center-chalkboard/2022/03/03/the-pandemic-has-had-devastating-impacts-on-learning-what-will-it-take-to-help-students-catch-up/
https://www.ukcolumn.org/article/what-are-we-doing-to-our-children-part-i
Conclusion: Lots of materials I have read whilst researching this piece refer to the impacts caused by covid19. Let’s be precise here: the impacts were caused by lockdowns, not covid. The impacts were man-made.
Of course, education was heavily affected but it’s not just academic education that suffered. Real-world education suffered massively. Children learn a lot of life-lessons from each other: how to play; how to negotiate; how to win; how to lose; how to persuade; how to kiss etc etc. I think of all the play times our children missed. All the parties they missed. The friends they could have made, but didn’t.
Cost Benefit Analysis
Billionaires did very well out of lockdowns. Coincidently, billionaires were one of the groups pushing for lockdowns.
‘From the start of March [2020] to now [April 27, 2020], the group of billionaires’ total wealth has increased by $308 billion.’
https://www.oxfam.org/en/research/inequality-virus
https://dailyclout.io/three-years-in-how-did-the-lockdowns-go/
Even the BBC predicted the harm of lockdowns: On May 29, 2020, Zaria Gorvett reported for the BBC Future program that most Covid deaths would be not from the virus but from the collateral damage inflicted by the various lockdown measures. Yet the government pushed on with the destruction for another year.
The bulk of this article focuses on non-quantifiable costs in terms of impacts on people’s lives. Let me now turn my attention to the quantifiable costs…
The Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in very high levels of public spending. Current estimates of the cost of Government measures announced so far range from about £310 to £410 billion. This is the equivalent of about £4,600 to £6,100 per person in the UK.
How many lives saved? None. If anything lockdowns led to increased numbers of non-covid deaths. Here’s an article that lays out the results of an Oxford study. The conclusion of the study is that:
‘Severe government measures did little to lower COVID-19 deaths or excess mortality from all causes. Indeed, government measures appear to have increased excess mortality from non-COVID health conditions. Yet the severity of these measures negatively affected economic performance as measured by unemployment and GDP and education as measured by access to in-person schooling.’
Having confirmed that lockdowns have imposed huge costs on our health and wellbeing as a society, let’s now consider the benefits of lockdowns.
What were the benefits? There were none. It has long been known that lockdowns do not prevent the transmission of infectious diseases. Many studies have reached that conclusion. Here is a link to an article that includes further links to the lockdown studies:
https://www.aier.org/article/the-catastrophic-impact-of-covid-forced-societal-lockdowns/
Instead of conducting and publishing rigorous cost-benefit analyses, departments and ministries of health turned into Covid-only bureaus, health ministers acted like Covid ministers, and governments were almost corrupted into single-purpose organizations pursuing Zero Covid.
We might not have known exactly how lockdown would play out back in the spring of 2020. But it was obvious to anyone that upending every aspect of our lives would have serious consequences. Yet the governing classes dismissed the risks of lockdown. In fact, most of the elites wanted longer and harder lockdowns than the three we, in England, endured. They thought the most restrictive regime on economic and public life that had ever been devised was not restrictive enough. As such, more lockdowns are on their way: as part of signing up to the WHO’s Pandemic Preparedness Treaty, lockdowns will become a way of life.
A precedent has been set.
Here’s a good summary:
‘Massive educational degradation. Economic devastation, by both the lockdowns and now the continuing fiscal nightmare plaguing the nation caused by continuing federal overreaction. The critical damage to the development of children’s social skills through hyper-masking and fear-mongering. The obliteration of the public’s trust in institutions due to their incompetence and deceitfulness during the pandemic. The massive erosion of civil liberties. The direct hardships caused by vaccination mandates, etc. under the false claim of helping one’s neighbor. The explosion of the growth of Wall Street built on the destruction of Main Street.
The clear separation of society into two camps – those who could easily prosper during the pandemic and those whose lives were completely upended. The demonization of anyone daring to ask even basic questions about the efficacy of the response, be it the vaccines themselves, the closure of public schools, the origin of the virus, or the absurdity of the useless public theater that made up much of the program. The fissures created throughout society and the harm caused by guillotined relationships amongst family and friends…’
https://www.city-journal.org/article/lockdowns-the-self-inflicted-disaster
Yet there are no apologies and no punishments. Politicians say that they were doing the best they could with limited information. Yet any idiot could predict the obvious consequences. The more obvious it became that covid had a low infection fatality rate, the worse the cost benefit ratio of lockdowns became. Yet governments pressed on.
A cynic could suggest that governments wanted the restrictions to be as harsh as possible so that we would eagerly accept the experimental gene therapy that was released at the end of 2020…
Atticus Fox 